England vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
England 96.6%2.4% TongaTonga 5.7%93.3% EnglandEngland 95.0%4.0% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 England and 52 England, with the middle run at 21 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 44-23 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours England, negative favours Tonga.
England 1763, Tonga 938 — 825 points, favouring England
England are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England4–0–0Tonga4 meetings, 1999 to 2021 · England by 51.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-06 | England 69–3 Tonga | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2019-09-22 | England 35–3 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Daiwa House Premist Dome |
| 2007-09-28 | England 36–20 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Parc des Princes(neutral) |
| 1999-10-15 | England 101–10 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Allianz Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.