England vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
England 97.5%1.5% TongaTonga 4.4%94.6% EnglandEngland 96.1%2.9% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for England v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 England and 54 England, half of them between 9 England and 38 England, with the middle run at 21 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 85 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 34-13 on a tight afternoon and 47-26 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of England winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps England, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
England 2235, Tonga 1454 — 782 points, favouring England
England are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England5–0–0Tonga5 meetings, 1979 to 2021 · England by 45.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-06 | England 69–3 Tonga | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2019-09-22 | England 35–3 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Daiwa House Premist Dome |
| 2007-09-28 | England 36–20 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Parc des Princes(neutral) |
| 1999-10-15 | England 101–10 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Allianz Stadium |
| 1979-06-01 | Tonga 17–37 England | — | Teufaiva Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.