England vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
England 96.8%2.2% UruguayUruguay 7.0%92.0% EnglandEngland 94.5%4.5% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for England v Uruguay, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 England and 54 England, half of them between 9 England and 39 England, with the middle run at 21 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 38 and 85 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 34-13 on a tight afternoon and 47-26 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of England winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps England, a bar to the left helps Uruguay.
England 2235, Uruguay 1520 — 716 points, favouring England
England are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England2–0–0Uruguay2 meetings, 2003 to 2015 · England by 77.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-10-10 | England 60–3 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | City of Manchester Stadium |
| 2003-11-02 | England 111–13 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | Suncorp Stadium(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.