England vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
England 94.2%4.8% UruguayUruguay 9.0%90.0% EnglandEngland 92.2%6.8% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 England and 51 England, with the middle run at 21 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 43-22 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours England, negative favours Uruguay.
England 1763, Uruguay 1177 — 587 points, favouring England
England are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England2–0–0Uruguay2 meetings, 2003 to 2015 · England by 77.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-10-10 | England 60–3 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | City of Manchester Stadium |
| 2003-11-02 | England 111–13 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | Suncorp Stadium(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.