Exeter Chiefs vs Glasgow Warriors
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Exeter Chiefs 54.1%draw 2.5%43.4% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 79.0%draw 2.5%18.5% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 36.5%draw 2.5%61.0% Glasgow WarriorsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Exeter Chiefs v Glasgow Warriors, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Glasgow Warriors and 19 Exeter Chiefs, half of them between 7 Glasgow Warriors and 9 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 1 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Exeter Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Exeter Chiefs, a bar to the left helps Glasgow Warriors.
Exeter Chiefs 1716, Glasgow Warriors 1949 — 233 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs5–1–2Glasgow Warriors8 meetings, 2017 to 2024 · Exeter Chiefs by 10.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-13 | Exeter Chiefs 19–17 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2022-01-15 | Exeter Chiefs 52–17 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2021-12-18 | Glasgow Warriors 22–7 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2020-12-13 | Exeter Chiefs 42–0 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2020-01-11 | Glasgow Warriors 31–31 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.