Exeter Chiefs vs Glasgow Warriors
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Exeter Chiefs 64.2%draw 2.5%33.3% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 65.7%draw 2.5%31.8% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 47.9%draw 2.5%49.6% Glasgow WarriorsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Glasgow Warriors and 28 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 5 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Exeter Chiefs, negative favours Glasgow Warriors.
Exeter Chiefs 1754, Glasgow Warriors 1792 — 38 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs5–1–2Glasgow Warriors8 meetings, 2017 to 2024 · Exeter Chiefs by 10.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-13 | Exeter Chiefs 19–17 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2022-01-15 | Exeter Chiefs 52–17 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2021-12-18 | Glasgow Warriors 22–7 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2020-12-13 | Exeter Chiefs 42–0 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2020-01-11 | Glasgow Warriors 31–31 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.