Exeter Chiefs vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Exeter Chiefs 70.3%draw 2.5%27.2% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 47.0%draw 2.5%50.5% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 61.4%draw 2.5%36.1% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Gloucester Rugby and 34 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 8 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-15 on a tight afternoon and 34-26 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Exeter Chiefs, negative favours Gloucester Rugby.
Exeter Chiefs 1754, Gloucester Rugby 1520 — 234 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs15–1–10Gloucester Rugby26 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Exeter Chiefs by 2.2 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Gloucester Rugby by 0.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Gloucester Rugby 34–31 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2025-10-25 | Exeter Chiefs 39–12 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2025-04-27 | Gloucester Rugby 79–17 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2024-12-29 | Exeter Chiefs 22–15 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2024-04-28 | Gloucester Rugby 17–38 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 26. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.