Exeter Chiefs vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Exeter Chiefs 60.8%draw 2.5%36.7% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 62.4%draw 2.5%35.1% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 44.1%draw 2.5%53.4% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Exeter Chiefs v Gloucester Rugby, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Gloucester Rugby and 20 Exeter Chiefs, half of them between 5 Gloucester Rugby and 10 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 3 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Exeter Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Exeter Chiefs, a bar to the left helps Gloucester Rugby.
Exeter Chiefs 1716, Gloucester Rugby 1684 — 32 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs15–1–11Gloucester Rugby27 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Exeter Chiefs by 1.3 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Gloucester Rugby by 3.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Exeter Chiefs 24–45 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2026-04-26 | Gloucester Rugby 34–31 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2025-10-25 | Exeter Chiefs 39–12 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2025-04-27 | Gloucester Rugby 79–17 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2024-12-29 | Exeter Chiefs 22–15 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 27. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.