Exeter Chiefs vs Harlequins
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Exeter Chiefs host Harlequins on Saturday 31 October at Sandy Park, Exeter, so Exeter Chiefs are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Exeter Chiefs 70.0%draw 2.5%27.5% HarlequinsHarlequins 56.7%draw 2.5%40.8% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 55.7%draw 2.5%41.8% HarlequinsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Exeter Chiefs v Harlequins, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Harlequins and 26 Exeter Chiefs, half of them between 1 Harlequins and 16 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 6 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-28 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Exeter Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Exeter Chiefs, a bar to the left helps Harlequins.
Exeter Chiefs 1716, Harlequins 1542 — 174 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs15–0–9Harlequins24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Exeter Chiefs by 5.8 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Harlequins by 0.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Harlequins 41–24 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-10-19 | Exeter Chiefs 38–0 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2025-05-18 | Harlequins 24–22 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2024-10-27 | Exeter Chiefs 19–36 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2024-05-11 | Exeter Chiefs 58–26 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.