Exeter Chiefs vs Harlequins
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Exeter Chiefs 70.3%draw 2.5%27.2% HarlequinsHarlequins 57.9%draw 2.5%39.6% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 55.1%draw 2.5%42.4% HarlequinsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Harlequins and 26 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 6 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-26 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Exeter Chiefs, negative favours Harlequins.
Exeter Chiefs 1754, Harlequins 1668 — 87 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs15–0–8Harlequins23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Exeter Chiefs by 6.1 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Harlequins by 0.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Harlequins 41–24 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-10-19 | Exeter Chiefs 38–0 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2025-05-18 | Harlequins 24–22 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2024-10-27 | Exeter Chiefs 19–36 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2024-05-11 | Exeter Chiefs 58–26 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.