Exeter Chiefs vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Exeter Chiefs 68.7%draw 2.5%28.8% La RochelleLa Rochelle 56.7%draw 2.5%40.8% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 54.8%draw 2.5%42.7% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 La Rochelle and 25 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 6 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-26 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Exeter Chiefs, negative favours La Rochelle.
Exeter Chiefs 1754, La Rochelle 1748 — 6 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs2–0–0La Rochelle2 meetings, 2019 to 2020 · Exeter Chiefs by 19.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-01-18 | Exeter Chiefs 33–14 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2019-11-16 | La Rochelle 12–31 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.