Exeter Chiefs vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Exeter Chiefs 60.7%draw 2.5%36.8% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 64.8%draw 2.5%32.7% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 47.0%draw 2.5%50.5% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Exeter Chiefs v Leicester Tigers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Leicester Tigers and 21 Exeter Chiefs, half of them between 5 Leicester Tigers and 11 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 3 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Exeter Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Exeter Chiefs, a bar to the left helps Leicester Tigers.
Exeter Chiefs 1716, Leicester Tigers 1800 — 84 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs14–0–9Leicester Tigers23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Exeter Chiefs by 5.8 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Leicester Tigers by 5.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Leicester Tigers 26–35 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2025-12-28 | Exeter Chiefs 24–10 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2025-01-04 | Leicester Tigers 28–15 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2024-09-21 | Exeter Chiefs 14–17 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2024-05-18 | Leicester Tigers 40–22 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.