Exeter Chiefs vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Exeter Chiefs 55.2%draw 2.5%42.3% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 70.0%draw 2.5%27.5% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 41.2%draw 2.5%56.3% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Leicester Tigers and 24 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 2 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Exeter Chiefs, negative favours Leicester Tigers.
Exeter Chiefs 1754, Leicester Tigers 1840 — 86 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs12–0–8Leicester Tigers20 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Exeter Chiefs by 5.4 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Leicester Tigers by 4.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | Exeter Chiefs 24–10 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2025-01-04 | Leicester Tigers 28–15 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2024-09-21 | Exeter Chiefs 14–17 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2024-05-18 | Leicester Tigers 40–22 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2023-12-23 | Exeter Chiefs 29–10 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.