Exeter Chiefs vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Exeter Chiefs 56.8%draw 2.5%40.7% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 66.3%draw 2.5%31.2% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 44.9%draw 2.5%52.6% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Montpellier Herault and 27 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 2 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Exeter Chiefs, negative favours Montpellier Herault.
Exeter Chiefs 1754, Montpellier Herault 1882 — 128 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs3–1–1Montpellier Herault5 meetings, 2017 to 2023 · Exeter Chiefs by 11.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-02 | Exeter Chiefs 33–33 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2022-01-23 | Montpellier Herault 37–26 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2021-12-11 | Exeter Chiefs 42–6 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2018-01-13 | Exeter Chiefs 41–10 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2017-10-22 | Montpellier Herault 24–27 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.