Exeter Chiefs vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Exeter Chiefs 49.7%draw 2.5%47.8% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 80.6%draw 2.5%16.9% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 32.6%draw 2.5%64.9% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Exeter Chiefs v Montpellier Herault, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Montpellier Herault and 17 Exeter Chiefs, half of them between 7 Montpellier Herault and 8 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-21 on a tight afternoon and 32-32 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Exeter Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Exeter Chiefs, a bar to the left helps Montpellier Herault.
Exeter Chiefs 1716, Montpellier Herault 1972 — 256 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Exeter Chiefs are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Montpellier Herault are on 47.8%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs3–1–1Montpellier Herault5 meetings, 2017 to 2023 · Exeter Chiefs by 11.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-02 | Exeter Chiefs 33–33 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2022-01-23 | Montpellier Herault 37–26 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2021-12-11 | Exeter Chiefs 42–6 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2018-01-13 | Exeter Chiefs 41–10 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2017-10-22 | Montpellier Herault 24–27 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.