Exeter Chiefs vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Exeter Chiefs 53.4%draw 2.5%44.1% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 67.1%draw 2.5%30.4% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 41.6%draw 2.5%55.9% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Northampton Saints and 20 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 1 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Exeter Chiefs, negative favours Northampton Saints.
Exeter Chiefs 1754, Northampton Saints 1918 — 164 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs14–1–10Northampton Saints25 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Exeter Chiefs by 7.4 on average
Last 10: 3–1–6 · Exeter Chiefs by 0.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Northampton Saints 26–17 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Allianz Stadium |
| 2026-04-18 | Exeter Chiefs 28–35 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2025-09-28 | Northampton Saints 33–33 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2025-05-11 | Exeter Chiefs 42–14 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2024-09-28 | Northampton Saints 30–24 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.