Exeter Chiefs vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Exeter Chiefs 48.9%draw 2.5%48.6% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 77.2%draw 2.5%20.3% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 34.0%draw 2.5%63.5% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Exeter Chiefs v Northampton Saints, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Northampton Saints and 17 Exeter Chiefs, half of them between 7 Northampton Saints and 8 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Exeter Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Exeter Chiefs, a bar to the left helps Northampton Saints.
Exeter Chiefs 1716, Northampton Saints 1957 — 241 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Exeter Chiefs are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Northampton Saints are on 48.6%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs14–1–11Northampton Saints26 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Exeter Chiefs by 7.1 on average
Last 10: 3–1–6 · Exeter Chiefs by 0.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Northampton Saints 26–17 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Allianz Stadium |
| 2026-04-18 | Exeter Chiefs 28–35 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2025-09-28 | Northampton Saints 33–33 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2025-05-11 | Exeter Chiefs 42–14 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2024-09-28 | Northampton Saints 30–24 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 26. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.