Exeter Chiefs vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Exeter Chiefs 64.1%draw 2.5%33.4% Racing 92Racing 92 56.1%draw 2.5%41.4% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 51.3%draw 2.5%46.2% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Exeter Chiefs v Racing 92, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Racing 92 and 24 Exeter Chiefs, half of them between 4 Racing 92 and 13 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 4 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Exeter Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Exeter Chiefs, a bar to the left helps Racing 92.
Exeter Chiefs 1716, Racing 92 1632 — 84 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs1–1–0Racing 922 meetings, 2020 to 2025 · Exeter Chiefs by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | Racing 92 31–31 Exeter Chiefs | European Challenge Cup | Stade Dominique Duvauchelle |
| 2020-10-17 | Exeter Chiefs 31–27 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Ashton Gate |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.