Exeter Chiefs vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Exeter Chiefs 72.6%draw 2.5%24.9% Sale SharksSale Sharks 53.6%draw 2.5%43.9% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 59.0%draw 2.5%38.5% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Exeter Chiefs v Sale Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Sale Sharks and 25 Exeter Chiefs, half of them between level and 15 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 6 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-28 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Exeter Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Exeter Chiefs, a bar to the left helps Sale Sharks.
Exeter Chiefs 1716, Sale Sharks 1504 — 212 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs19–0–7Sale Sharks26 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Exeter Chiefs by 5.8 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Exeter Chiefs by 0.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Exeter Chiefs 26–14 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2025-11-28 | Sale Sharks 26–27 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2025-05-31 | Exeter Chiefs 26–30 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2024-12-21 | Sale Sharks 28–10 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2024-03-31 | Sale Sharks 41–5 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 26. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.