Exeter Chiefs vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Exeter Chiefs 72.2%draw 2.5%25.3% Sale SharksSale Sharks 50.3%draw 2.5%47.2% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 58.9%draw 2.5%38.6% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Sale Sharks and 26 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 6 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Exeter Chiefs, negative favours Sale Sharks.
Exeter Chiefs 1754, Sale Sharks 1558 — 196 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs19–0–5Sale Sharks24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Exeter Chiefs by 8.0 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Exeter Chiefs by 6.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Exeter Chiefs 26–14 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2025-11-28 | Sale Sharks 26–27 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2024-12-21 | Sale Sharks 28–10 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2023-10-28 | Exeter Chiefs 43–0 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2023-02-26 | Exeter Chiefs 24–22 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.