Exeter Chiefs vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Exeter Chiefs 59.2%draw 2.5%38.3% SaracensSaracens 66.1%draw 2.5%31.4% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 45.2%draw 2.5%52.3% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Saracens and 23 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 3 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Exeter Chiefs, negative favours Saracens.
Exeter Chiefs 1754, Saracens 1802 — 48 points, favouring Saracens
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs11–1–12Saracens24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Saracens by 1.5 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Exeter Chiefs by 1.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Exeter Chiefs 32–12 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2025-12-20 | Saracens 24–30 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2025-01-25 | Exeter Chiefs 31–22 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2024-10-06 | Saracens 29–14 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2024-01-27 | Saracens 40–22 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.