Exeter Chiefs vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Exeter Chiefs 52.1%draw 2.5%45.4% SaracensSaracens 70.0%draw 2.5%27.5% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 39.3%draw 2.5%58.2% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Exeter Chiefs v Saracens, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Saracens and 18 Exeter Chiefs, half of them between 7 Saracens and 9 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 1 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Exeter Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Exeter Chiefs, a bar to the left helps Saracens.
Exeter Chiefs 1716, Saracens 1861 — 145 points, favouring Saracens
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs11–1–13Saracens25 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Saracens by 2.8 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Exeter Chiefs by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Exeter Chiefs 32–12 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2025-12-20 | Saracens 24–30 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2025-01-25 | Exeter Chiefs 31–22 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2024-10-06 | Saracens 29–14 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2024-01-27 | Saracens 40–22 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.