Exeter Chiefs vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Exeter Chiefs 50.9%draw 2.5%46.6% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 66.4%draw 2.5%31.1% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 40.9%draw 2.5%56.6% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Stade Francais Paris and 16 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 1 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 29-28 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Exeter Chiefs, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Exeter Chiefs 1754, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 21 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs0–0–1Stade Francais Paris1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Stade Francais Paris by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Stade Francais Paris 27–25 Exeter Chiefs | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.