Exeter Chiefs vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Exeter Chiefs 57.1%draw 2.5%40.4% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 65.4%draw 2.5%32.1% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 42.0%draw 2.5%55.5% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Exeter Chiefs v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Stade Francais Paris and 19 Exeter Chiefs, half of them between 6 Stade Francais Paris and 10 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 2 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Exeter Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Exeter Chiefs, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Exeter Chiefs 1716, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 15 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs0–0–1Stade Francais Paris1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Stade Francais Paris by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Stade Francais Paris 27–25 Exeter Chiefs | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.