Exeter Chiefs vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Exeter Chiefs 54.2%draw 2.5%43.3% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 72.1%draw 2.5%25.4% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 39.7%draw 2.5%57.8% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Stade Toulousain and 19 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 1 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Exeter Chiefs, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Exeter Chiefs 1754, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 109 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs1–0–3Stade Toulousain4 meetings, 2020 to 2024 · Stade Toulousain by 24.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | Exeter Chiefs 21–64 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2024-04-14 | Stade Toulousain 64–26 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2020-12-20 | Stade Toulousain 28–0 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2020-09-26 | Exeter Chiefs 28–18 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.