Exeter Chiefs vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Exeter Chiefs 39.9%draw 2.5%57.6% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 78.8%draw 2.5%18.7% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 28.7%draw 2.5%68.8% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Exeter Chiefs v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Stade Toulousain and 15 Exeter Chiefs, half of them between 12 Stade Toulousain and 5 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 3 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Exeter Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Exeter Chiefs, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Exeter Chiefs 1716, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 276 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs1–0–3Stade Toulousain4 meetings, 2020 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 18.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Stade Toulousain 43–40 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2024-12-15 | Exeter Chiefs 21–64 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2024-04-14 | Stade Toulousain 64–26 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2020-09-26 | Exeter Chiefs 28–18 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.