Exeter Chiefs vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Exeter Chiefs 62.5%draw 2.5%35.0% ToulonToulon 62.1%draw 2.5%35.4% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 48.8%draw 2.5%48.7% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Exeter Chiefs v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Toulon and 24 Exeter Chiefs, half of them between 4 Toulon and 13 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 4 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Exeter Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Exeter Chiefs, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Exeter Chiefs 1716, Toulon 1663 — 53 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs1–0–0Toulon1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Exeter Chiefs by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-09 | Toulon 18–19 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.