Exeter Chiefs vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Exeter Chiefs 80.0%draw 2.5%17.5% ToulonToulon 39.4%draw 2.5%58.1% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 67.7%draw 2.5%29.8% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Toulon and 36 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 11 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Exeter Chiefs, negative favours Toulon.
Exeter Chiefs 1754, Toulon 1435 — 320 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs1–0–0Toulon1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Exeter Chiefs by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-09 | Toulon 18–19 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.