Fiji vs France
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
France host Fiji on Saturday 7 November at Groupama Stadium, Lyon, so France are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Fiji 11.4%87.6% FranceFrance 94.5%4.5% FijiFiji 7.1%91.9% FranceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for France v Fiji, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 France and 52 France, half of them between 8 France and 38 France, with the middle run at 21 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 44-23 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of France winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps France, a bar to the left helps Fiji.
France 2301, Fiji 1841 — 460 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji1–0–12France13 meetings, 1964 to 2025 · France by 21.5 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · France by 23.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | France 34–21 Fiji | — | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| 2023-08-19 | France 34–17 Fiji | — | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| 2018-11-24 | France 14–21 Fiji | — | Stade de France |
| 2014-11-08 | France 40–15 Fiji | — | Stade Vélodrome |
| 2010-11-13 | France 34–12 Fiji | — | Stade de la Beaujoire |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.