Fiji vs France
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Fiji 12.0%87.0% FranceFrance 89.6%9.4% FijiFiji 10.6%88.4% FranceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 35 France and 4 Fiji, with the middle run at 11 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Fiji are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Fiji, negative favours France.
Fiji 1412, France 1842 — 430 points, favouring France
Fiji are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji1–0–6France7 meetings, 1987 to 2025 · France by 16.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | France 34–21 Fiji | — | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| 2023-08-19 | France 34–17 Fiji | — | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| 2018-11-24 | France 14–21 Fiji | — | Stade de France |
| 2003-10-11 | France 61–18 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Suncorp Stadium(neutral) |
| 1999-10-16 | France 28–19 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Stade Toulouse |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.