Fiji vs Georgia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Fiji 60.9%draw 2.9%36.2% GeorgiaGeorgia 57.2%draw 2.9%39.9% FijiFiji 50.8%draw 2.9%46.3% GeorgiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Fiji v Georgia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Georgia and 29 Fiji, half of them between 4 Georgia and 16 Fiji, with the middle run at 3 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Fiji are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Fiji winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Fiji, a bar to the left helps Georgia.
Fiji 1841, Georgia 1899 — 57 points, favouring Georgia
Fiji are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji6–1–1Georgia8 meetings, 2012 to 2024 · Fiji by 9.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-05 | Georgia 12–21 Fiji | — | Adjarabet Arena |
| 2023-09-30 | Fiji 17–12 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| 2021-11-20 | Georgia 15–15 Fiji | — | Estadio El Deleite |
| 2020-12-05 | Georgia 24–38 Fiji | — | Murrayfield(neutral) |
| 2019-10-03 | Georgia 10–45 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Hanazono Rugby Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.