Fiji vs Hong Kong China
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Fiji 95.9%3.1% Hong Kong ChinaHong Kong China 10.5%88.5% FijiFiji 92.4%6.6% Hong Kong ChinaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Fiji v Hong Kong China, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Fiji and 52 Fiji, half of them between 8 Fiji and 37 Fiji, with the middle run at 21 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-12 on a tight afternoon and 45-24 on an open one.
Why Fiji are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Fiji winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Fiji, a bar to the left helps Hong Kong China.
Fiji 1841, Hong Kong China 1297 — 544 points, favouring Fiji
Fiji are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji3–0–0Hong Kong China3 meetings, 1990 to 1996 · Fiji by 42.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996-10-05 | Hong Kong China 16–37 Fiji | — | Hong Kong Stadium |
| 1996-09-29 | Hong Kong China 11–64 Fiji | — | Aberdeen Sports Ground |
| 1990-12-05 | Hong Kong China 0–54 Fiji | — | Hong Kong Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.