Fiji vs Japan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Fiji 72.9%draw 2.8%24.3% JapanJapan 53.2%draw 2.8%44.0% FijiFiji 57.4%draw 2.8%39.8% JapanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Japan and 25 Fiji, with the middle run at 5 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Fiji are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Fiji, negative favours Japan.
Fiji 1412, Japan 1310 — 102 points, favouring Fiji
Fiji are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji5–0–0Japan5 meetings, 2003 to 2024 · Fiji by 18.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | Japan 17–41 Fiji | — | Osaka |
| 2023-08-05 | Japan 12–35 Fiji | — | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
| 2016-11-26 | Fiji 38–25 Japan | — | Stade de la Rabine |
| 2007-09-12 | Fiji 35–31 Japan | Rugby World Cup | Stade Toulouse(neutral) |
| 2003-10-23 | Fiji 41–13 Japan | Rugby World Cup | Dairy Farmers Stadium(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.