Fiji vs Japan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Japan host Fiji on Saturday 24 October at Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium, Tokyo, so Japan are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Fiji 61.4%draw 3.0%35.6% JapanJapan 61.4%draw 3.0%35.6% FijiFiji 48.5%draw 3.0%48.5% JapanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Japan v Fiji, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Fiji and 33 Japan, half of them between 3 Fiji and 19 Japan, with the middle run at 4 Japan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-27 on an open one.
Why Japan are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Japan winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Japan, a bar to the left helps Fiji.
Japan 1846, Fiji 1841 — 5 points, favouring Japan
Japan are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji17–0–5Japan22 meetings, 1990 to 2026 · Fiji by 8.6 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Fiji by 6.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Japan 20–15 Fiji | — | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
| 2025-09-20 | Japan 27–33 Fiji | — | America First Field(neutral) |
| 2024-09-21 | Japan 17–41 Fiji | — | Osaka |
| 2023-08-05 | Japan 12–35 Fiji | — | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
| 2019-07-27 | Japan 34–21 Fiji | — | Kamaishi Recovery Memorial Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.