Fiji vs Namibia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Fiji 89.6%9.4% NamibiaNamibia 13.7%85.3% FijiFiji 87.6%11.4% NamibiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 52 Fiji, with the middle run at 20 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 31-11 on a tight afternoon and 43-23 on an open one.
Why Fiji are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Fiji, negative favours Namibia.
Fiji 1412, Namibia 930 — 481 points, favouring Fiji
Fiji are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji2–0–0Namibia2 meetings, 1999 to 2011 · Fiji by 36.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-09-10 | Fiji 49–25 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Rotorua International Stadium(neutral) |
| 1999-10-01 | Fiji 67–18 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Stade Raoul-Barriere(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.