Fiji vs Portugal
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Fiji 80.7%draw 2.3%17.0% PortugalPortugal 35.6%draw 2.3%62.1% FijiFiji 71.6%draw 2.3%26.1% PortugalEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Fiji v Portugal, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Portugal and 36 Fiji, half of them between 2 Fiji and 22 Fiji, with the middle run at 10 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Fiji are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Fiji winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Fiji, a bar to the left helps Portugal.
Fiji 1841, Portugal 1638 — 203 points, favouring Fiji
Fiji are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji2–0–1Portugal3 meetings, 2005 to 2023 · Fiji by 10.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | Fiji 23–24 Portugal | Rugby World Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2013-11-09 | Portugal 13–36 Fiji | — | Estadio Universitario |
| 2005-11-19 | Portugal 17–26 Fiji | — | Estadio Universitario |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.