Fiji vs Portugal
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Fiji 76.7%draw 1.8%21.5% PortugalPortugal 30.9%draw 1.8%67.3% FijiFiji 72.1%draw 1.8%26.1% PortugalEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Portugal and 45 Fiji, with the middle run at 13 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 38-25 on an open one.
Why Fiji are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Fiji, negative favours Portugal.
Fiji 1412, Portugal 1121 — 291 points, favouring Fiji
Fiji are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji0–0–1Portugal1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Portugal by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | Fiji 23–24 Portugal | Rugby World Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.