Fiji vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Fiji 87.5%11.5% RomaniaRomania 17.0%82.0% FijiFiji 84.2%14.8% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Romania and 52 Fiji, with the middle run at 21 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 43-22 on an open one.
Why Fiji are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Fiji, negative favours Romania.
Fiji 1412, Romania 788 — 624 points, favouring Fiji
Fiji are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji0–0–1Romania1 meeting, 1991 to 1991 · Romania by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991-10-12 | Romania 17–15 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Amedee Domenech(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.