Fiji vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Fiji 92.7%6.3% RomaniaRomania 13.9%85.1% FijiFiji 89.1%9.9% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Fiji v Romania, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Fiji and 48 Fiji, half of them between 6 Fiji and 33 Fiji, with the middle run at 17 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 31-14 on a tight afternoon and 43-26 on an open one.
Why Fiji are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Fiji winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Fiji, a bar to the left helps Romania.
Fiji 1841, Romania 1265 — 576 points, favouring Fiji
Fiji are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji2–0–1Romania3 meetings, 1991 to 2013 · Fiji by 9.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-11-23 | Romania 7–26 Fiji | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2009-11-28 | Romania 18–29 Fiji | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 1991-10-12 | Romania 17–15 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Amedee Domenech(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.