Fiji vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Fiji 19.3%draw 1.4%79.3% ScotlandScotland 90.6%draw 1.4%8.0% FijiFiji 12.2%draw 1.4%86.4% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Fiji v Scotland, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 36 Scotland and 12 Fiji, half of them between 22 Scotland and 1 Scotland, with the middle run at 9 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Fiji are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Fiji winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Fiji, a bar to the left helps Scotland.
Fiji 1841, Scotland 2193 — 351 points, favouring Scotland
Fiji are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji3–0–11Scotland14 meetings, 1982 to 2026 · Scotland by 11.2 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Scotland by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Fiji 17–33 Scotland | Nations Championship | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2025-07-12 | Fiji 29–14 Scotland | — | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2024-11-02 | Scotland 57–17 Fiji | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2022-11-05 | Scotland 28–12 Fiji | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2018-11-10 | Scotland 54–17 Fiji | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.