Fiji vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Fiji 27.0%draw 1.6%71.4% ScotlandScotland 88.4%draw 1.7%9.9% FijiFiji 18.4%draw 1.6%80.0% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 34 Scotland and 13 Fiji, with the middle run at 7 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-28 on an open one.
Why Fiji are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Fiji, negative favours Scotland.
Fiji 1412, Scotland 1730 — 318 points, favouring Scotland
Fiji are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji2–0–5Scotland7 meetings, 2003 to 2026 · Scotland by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Fiji 17–33 Scotland | Nations Championship | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2025-07-12 | Fiji 29–14 Scotland | — | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2024-11-02 | Scotland 57–17 Fiji | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2022-11-05 | Scotland 28–12 Fiji | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2018-11-10 | Scotland 54–17 Fiji | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.