Fiji vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Fiji 6.1%92.9% South AfricaSouth Africa 94.0%5.0% FijiFiji 5.5%93.5% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 46 South Africa and 1 South Africa, with the middle run at 17 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-12 on a tight afternoon and 41-24 on an open one.
Why Fiji are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Fiji, negative favours South Africa.
Fiji 1412, South Africa 2036 — 624 points, favouring South Africa
Fiji are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji0–0–2South Africa2 meetings, 2007 to 2011 · South Africa by 31.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-09-17 | South Africa 49–3 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Hnry Stadium(neutral) |
| 2007-10-07 | South Africa 37–20 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Orange Velodrome(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.