Fiji vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Fiji 6.4%92.6% South AfricaSouth Africa 95.9%3.1% FijiFiji 4.6%94.4% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Fiji v South Africa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 52 South Africa and 1 South Africa, half of them between 36 South Africa and 7 South Africa, with the middle run at 18 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 85 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-14 on a tight afternoon and 45-27 on an open one.
Why Fiji are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Fiji winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Fiji, a bar to the left helps South Africa.
Fiji 1841, South Africa 2512 — 670 points, favouring South Africa
Fiji are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji0–0–3South Africa3 meetings, 1996 to 2011 · South Africa by 29.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-09-17 | South Africa 49–3 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Hnry Stadium(neutral) |
| 2007-10-07 | South Africa 37–20 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Orange Velodrome(neutral) |
| 1996-07-02 | South Africa 43–18 Fiji | — | Loftus Versfeld |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.