Fiji vs Spain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Fiji 89.5%draw 1.9%8.6% SpainSpain 26.2%draw 1.9%71.9% FijiFiji 81.7%draw 1.9%16.4% SpainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Fiji v Spain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 45 Fiji, half of them between 5 Fiji and 31 Fiji, with the middle run at 16 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-13 on a tight afternoon and 39-23 on an open one.
Why Fiji are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Fiji winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Fiji, a bar to the left helps Spain.
Fiji 1841, Spain 1566 — 276 points, favouring Fiji
Fiji are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji4–0–0Spain4 meetings, 1999 to 2025 · Fiji by 17.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Spain 33–41 Fiji | — | Estadio Ciudad de Malaga |
| 2024-11-16 | Spain 19–33 Fiji | — | Estadio Jose Zorrilla |
| 2021-11-06 | Spain 13–43 Fiji | — | Estadio Nacional Complutense |
| 1999-08-24 | Spain 20–39 Fiji | — | Stadio Tommaso Fattori(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.