Fiji vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Fiji 89.5%draw 1.2%9.3% TongaTonga 17.5%draw 1.2%81.3% FijiFiji 85.7%draw 1.2%13.1% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Fiji v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 42 Fiji, half of them between 4 Fiji and 28 Fiji, with the middle run at 14 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-14 on a tight afternoon and 39-25 on an open one.
Why Fiji are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Fiji winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Fiji, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
Fiji 1841, Tonga 1454 — 388 points, favouring Fiji
Fiji are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji66–2–27Tonga95 meetings, 1924 to 2025 · Fiji by 7.1 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Fiji by 15.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-30 | Fiji 32–10 Tonga | — | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2024-09-07 | Fiji 50–19 Tonga | — | Nuku'alofa |
| 2023-07-22 | Fiji 36–20 Tonga | — | Churchill Park |
| 2022-07-02 | Fiji 36–0 Tonga | — | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2019-08-31 | Fiji 29–19 Tonga | — | Eden Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 95. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.