Fiji vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Fiji 89.8%9.2% TongaTonga 20.2%78.8% FijiFiji 84.4%14.6% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Fiji and 48 Fiji, with the middle run at 19 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-11 on a tight afternoon and 41-22 on an open one.
Why Fiji are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Fiji, negative favours Tonga.
Fiji 1412, Tonga 938 — 474 points, favouring Fiji
Fiji are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji3–0–1Tonga4 meetings, 2018 to 2024 · Fiji by 12.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-07 | Fiji 50–19 Tonga | — | Nuku'alofa |
| 2023-07-22 | Fiji 36–20 Tonga | — | Churchill Park |
| 2019-08-31 | Fiji 29–19 Tonga | — | Eden Park |
| 2018-06-23 | Fiji 19–27 Tonga | — | HFC Bank Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.