Fiji vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Fiji 82.2%draw 2.2%15.6% UruguayUruguay 40.9%draw 2.1%57.0% FijiFiji 63.1%draw 2.2%34.7% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Uruguay and 36 Fiji, with the middle run at 10 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-27 on an open one.
Why Fiji are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Fiji, negative favours Uruguay.
Fiji 1412, Uruguay 1177 — 235 points, favouring Fiji
Fiji are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji2–0–1Uruguay3 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · Fiji by 30.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-25 | Fiji 27–30 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | Kamaishi Recovery Memorial Stadium |
| 2018-11-17 | Uruguay 7–68 Fiji | — | 4ED Hartpury Stadium with Vodafone |
| 2015-10-06 | Fiji 47–15 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | stadium:mk(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.