Fiji vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Fiji 92.1%draw 1.6%6.3% UruguayUruguay 22.4%draw 1.6%76.0% FijiFiji 85.1%draw 1.6%13.3% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Fiji v Uruguay, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Fiji and 46 Fiji, half of them between 6 Fiji and 32 Fiji, with the middle run at 17 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-12 on a tight afternoon and 41-24 on an open one.
Why Fiji are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Fiji winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Fiji, a bar to the left helps Uruguay.
Fiji 1841, Uruguay 1520 — 322 points, favouring Fiji
Fiji are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji4–0–1Uruguay5 meetings, 1999 to 2019 · Fiji by 25.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-25 | Fiji 27–30 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | Kamaishi Recovery Memorial Stadium |
| 2018-11-17 | Uruguay 7–68 Fiji | — | 4ED Hartpury Stadium with Vodafone |
| 2015-10-06 | Fiji 47–15 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | stadium:mk(neutral) |
| 2003-08-13 | Uruguay 3–24 Fiji | — | Luis Franzini Stadium |
| 1999-08-26 | Fiji 39–24 Uruguay | — | Stadio Tommaso Fattori(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.