Fijian Drua vs Highlanders
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Fijian Drua 54.3%draw 2.5%43.2% HighlandersHighlanders 68.7%draw 2.5%28.8% Fijian DruaFijian Drua 41.5%draw 2.5%56.0% HighlandersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fijian Drua wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Highlanders and 21 Fijian Drua, with the middle run at 1 Fijian Drua.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Fijian Drua are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Fijian Drua, negative favours Highlanders.
Fijian Drua 1277, Highlanders 1328 — 51 points, favouring Highlanders
Fijian Drua are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fijian Drua1–0–3Highlanders4 meetings, 2023 to 2026 · Highlanders by 20.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Fijian Drua 24–14 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Four R Stadium |
| 2025-04-12 | Highlanders 43–20 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2024-05-26 | Highlanders 39–3 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2023-03-25 | Highlanders 57–24 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.