Fijian Drua vs Highlanders
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Fijian Drua 58.0%draw 2.5%39.5% HighlandersHighlanders 73.8%draw 2.5%23.7% Fijian DruaFijian Drua 40.7%draw 2.5%56.8% HighlandersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Fijian Drua v Highlanders, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fijian Drua wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Highlanders and 20 Fijian Drua, half of them between 6 Highlanders and 10 Fijian Drua, with the middle run at 2 Fijian Drua.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Fijian Drua are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Fijian Drua winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Fijian Drua, a bar to the left helps Highlanders.
Fijian Drua 1225, Highlanders 1314 — 89 points, favouring Highlanders
Fijian Drua are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fijian Drua1–0–4Highlanders5 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Highlanders by 17.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Fijian Drua 24–14 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Four R Stadium |
| 2025-04-12 | Highlanders 43–20 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2024-05-26 | Highlanders 39–3 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2023-03-25 | Highlanders 57–24 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2022-04-30 | Fijian Drua 24–27 Highlanders | Super Rugby | HFC Bank Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.