Fijian Drua vs Hurricanes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Fijian Drua 18.5%draw 2.5%79.0% HurricanesHurricanes 89.1%draw 2.5%8.4% Fijian DruaFijian Drua 13.3%draw 2.5%84.2% HurricanesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fijian Drua wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 33 Hurricanes and 5 Fijian Drua, with the middle run at 9 Hurricanes.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 37-28 on an open one.
Why Fijian Drua are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Fijian Drua, negative favours Hurricanes.
Fijian Drua 1277, Hurricanes 1864 — 588 points, favouring Hurricanes
Fijian Drua are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fijian Drua2–0–3Hurricanes5 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Hurricanes by 16.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Fijian Drua 25–20 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Churchill Park |
| 2025-02-22 | Hurricanes 38–34 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | McLean Park |
| 2024-04-19 | Fijian Drua 15–38 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2023-05-06 | Fijian Drua 27–24 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2022-05-08 | Hurricanes 67–5 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.