Fijian Drua vs Hurricanes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Fijian Drua 21.3%draw 2.5%76.2% HurricanesHurricanes 89.9%draw 2.5%7.6% Fijian DruaFijian Drua 15.2%draw 2.5%82.3% HurricanesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Fijian Drua v Hurricanes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fijian Drua wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 31 Hurricanes and 6 Fijian Drua, half of them between 19 Hurricanes and 1 Hurricanes, with the middle run at 8 Hurricanes.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 80 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-18 on a tight afternoon and 38-30 on an open one.
Why Fijian Drua are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Fijian Drua winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Fijian Drua, a bar to the left helps Hurricanes.
Fijian Drua 1225, Hurricanes 1912 — 687 points, favouring Hurricanes
Fijian Drua are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fijian Drua2–0–3Hurricanes5 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Hurricanes by 16.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Fijian Drua 25–20 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Churchill Park |
| 2025-02-22 | Hurricanes 38–34 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | McLean Park |
| 2024-04-19 | Fijian Drua 15–38 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2023-05-06 | Fijian Drua 27–24 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2022-05-08 | Hurricanes 67–5 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.