Fijian Drua vs New South Wales Waratahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Fijian Drua 56.1%draw 2.5%41.4% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 67.5%draw 2.5%30.0% Fijian DruaFijian Drua 42.8%draw 2.5%54.7% New South Wales WaratahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Fijian Drua v New South Wales Waratahs, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fijian Drua wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 New South Wales Waratahs and 20 Fijian Drua, half of them between 6 New South Wales Waratahs and 10 Fijian Drua, with the middle run at 2 Fijian Drua.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Fijian Drua are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Fijian Drua winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Fijian Drua, a bar to the left helps New South Wales Waratahs.
Fijian Drua 1225, New South Wales Waratahs 1289 — 64 points, favouring New South Wales Waratahs
Fijian Drua are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fijian Drua2–0–7New South Wales Waratahs9 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · New South Wales Waratahs by 13.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Fijian Drua 35–50 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2026-02-20 | New South Wales Waratahs 36–13 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-04-19 | Fijian Drua 28–14 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Churchill Park |
| 2025-02-28 | New South Wales Waratahs 29–24 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-03-23 | Fijian Drua 39–36 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Churchill Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.