Fijian Drua vs New South Wales Waratahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Fijian Drua 54.2%draw 2.5%43.3% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 68.9%draw 2.5%28.6% Fijian DruaFijian Drua 41.3%draw 2.5%56.2% New South Wales WaratahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fijian Drua wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 New South Wales Waratahs and 23 Fijian Drua, with the middle run at 2 Fijian Drua.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Fijian Drua are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Fijian Drua, negative favours New South Wales Waratahs.
Fijian Drua 1277, New South Wales Waratahs 1311 — 35 points, favouring New South Wales Waratahs
Fijian Drua are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fijian Drua2–0–6New South Wales Waratahs8 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · New South Wales Waratahs by 14.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Fijian Drua 35–50 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2026-02-20 | New South Wales Waratahs 36–13 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-04-19 | Fijian Drua 28–14 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Churchill Park |
| 2024-03-23 | Fijian Drua 39–36 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Churchill Park |
| 2023-05-20 | New South Wales Waratahs 32–18 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.