Fijian Drua vs Queensland Reds
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Fijian Drua 47.1%draw 2.5%50.4% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 70.1%draw 2.5%27.4% Fijian DruaFijian Drua 37.0%draw 2.5%60.5% Queensland RedsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fijian Drua wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Queensland Reds and 16 Fijian Drua, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Fijian Drua are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Fijian Drua, negative favours Queensland Reds.
Fijian Drua 1277, Queensland Reds 1454 — 177 points, favouring Queensland Reds
Fijian Drua are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fijian Drua3–0–4Queensland Reds7 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Queensland Reds by 1.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Queensland Reds 45–24 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2026-03-21 | Fijian Drua 6–21 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Churchill Park |
| 2025-05-03 | Fijian Drua 36–33 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2024-05-18 | Fijian Drua 28–19 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2023-06-03 | Fijian Drua 41–17 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | HFC Bank Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.