Fijian Drua vs Queensland Reds
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Fijian Drua 50.3%draw 2.5%47.2% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 79.2%draw 2.5%18.3% Fijian DruaFijian Drua 33.8%draw 2.5%63.7% Queensland RedsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Fijian Drua v Queensland Reds, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fijian Drua wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Queensland Reds and 18 Fijian Drua, half of them between 7 Queensland Reds and 9 Fijian Drua, with the middle run at 1 Fijian Drua.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Fijian Drua are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Fijian Drua winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Fijian Drua, a bar to the left helps Queensland Reds.
Fijian Drua 1225, Queensland Reds 1460 — 235 points, favouring Queensland Reds
Fijian Drua are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fijian Drua3–0–5Queensland Reds8 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Queensland Reds by 6.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Queensland Reds 45–24 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2026-03-21 | Fijian Drua 6–21 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Churchill Park |
| 2025-05-31 | Queensland Reds 52–7 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2025-05-03 | Fijian Drua 36–33 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2024-05-18 | Fijian Drua 28–19 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | HFC Bank Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.