France vs Georgia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
France 92.8%draw 1.1%6.1% GeorgiaGeorgia 15.5%draw 1.1%83.4% FranceFrance 90.0%draw 1.1%8.9% GeorgiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for France v Georgia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 France and 50 France, half of them between 7 France and 36 France, with the middle run at 19 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 31-12 on a tight afternoon and 42-23 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of France winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps France, a bar to the left helps Georgia.
France 2301, Georgia 1899 — 403 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France2–0–1Georgia3 meetings, 2001 to 2021 · France by 26.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-14 | France 41–15 Georgia | — | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2007-09-30 | France 64–7 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Orange Velodrome |
| 2001-11-10 | Georgia 24–20 France | — | Vake Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.