France vs Hong Kong China
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
France 97.7%1.3% Hong Kong ChinaHong Kong China 4.5%94.5% FranceFrance 96.1%2.9% Hong Kong ChinaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for France v Hong Kong China, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 France and 56 France, half of them between 9 France and 39 France, with the middle run at 22 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 39 and 91 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 36-14 on a tight afternoon and 49-27 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of France winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps France, a bar to the left helps Hong Kong China.
France 2301, Hong Kong China 1297 — 1004 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France1–0–0Hong Kong China1 meeting, 1978 to 1978 · France by 26.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1978-09-09 | Hong Kong China 0–26 France | — | — |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.