France vs Japan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
France 93.9%5.1% JapanJapan 11.6%87.4% FranceFrance 90.8%8.2% JapanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 France and 49 France, with the middle run at 20 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 31-11 on a tight afternoon and 42-22 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours France, negative favours Japan.
France 1842, Japan 1310 — 532 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France7–1–1Japan9 meetings, 2003 to 2026 · France by 15.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Japan 15–42 France | Nations Championship | MUFG Stadium |
| 2024-11-16 | France 20–36 Japan | — | Chambery(neutral) |
| 2024-11-09 | France 52–12 Japan | — | Stade de France |
| 2022-11-20 | France 35–17 Japan | — | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2022-07-09 | Japan 15–20 France | — | MUFG Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.