France vs Japan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
France 92.9%6.1% JapanJapan 11.7%87.3% FranceFrance 91.3%7.7% JapanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for France v Japan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 France and 49 France, half of them between 6 France and 35 France, with the middle run at 18 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 31-13 on a tight afternoon and 42-24 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of France winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps France, a bar to the left helps Japan.
France 2301, Japan 1846 — 455 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France14–1–1Japan16 meetings, 1973 to 2026 · France by 24.6 on average
Last 10: 8–1–1 · France by 19.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Japan 15–42 France | Nations Championship | MUFG Stadium |
| 2024-11-16 | France 20–36 Japan | — | Chambery(neutral) |
| 2024-11-09 | France 52–12 Japan | — | Stade de France |
| 2022-11-20 | France 35–17 Japan | — | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2022-07-09 | Japan 15–20 France | — | MUFG Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.