France vs Namibia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
France 97.5%1.5% NamibiaNamibia 4.1%94.9% FranceFrance 96.3%2.7% NamibiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for France v Namibia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 France and 56 France, half of them between 9 France and 39 France, with the middle run at 21 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 41 and 94 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 36-15 on a tight afternoon and 50-29 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of France winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps France, a bar to the left helps Namibia.
France 2301, Namibia 1240 — 1062 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France3–0–0Namibia3 meetings, 1999 to 2023 · France by 69.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-21 | France 96–0 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Orange Velodrome |
| 2007-09-16 | France 87–10 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Stade Toulouse |
| 1999-10-08 | France 47–13 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.