France vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
France 96.1%2.9% RomaniaRomania 6.6%92.4% FranceFrance 94.3%4.7% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 France and 52 France, with the middle run at 22 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 82 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-11 on a tight afternoon and 46-24 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours France, negative favours Romania.
France 1842, Romania 788 — 1054 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France3–0–0Romania3 meetings, 1987 to 2015 · France by 32.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-09-23 | France 38–11 Romania | Rugby World Cup | London Stadium(neutral) |
| 1991-10-04 | France 30–3 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Stade Raoul-Barriere |
| 1987-05-28 | France 55–12 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Athletic Park, Wellington(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.