France vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
France 74.4%draw 2.8%22.8% ScotlandScotland 42.0%draw 2.8%55.2% FranceFrance 66.0%draw 2.8%31.2% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for France v Scotland, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Scotland and 32 France, half of them between level and 19 France, with the middle run at 7 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-26 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of France winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps France, a bar to the left helps Scotland.
France 2301, Scotland 2193 — 109 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France61–4–41Scotland106 meetings, 1910 to 2026 · France by 2.4 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · France by 3.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Scotland 50–40 France | Six Nations Championship | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2025-03-15 | France 35–16 Scotland | — | Stade de France |
| 2024-02-10 | Scotland 16–20 France | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2023-08-12 | France 30–27 Scotland | — | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 2023-08-05 | Scotland 25–21 France | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 106. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.