France vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
France 73.5%draw 2.8%23.7% ScotlandScotland 40.6%draw 2.8%56.6% FranceFrance 65.1%draw 2.8%32.1% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Scotland and 32 France, with the middle run at 8 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-15 on a tight afternoon and 34-26 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours France, negative favours Scotland.
France 1842, Scotland 1730 — 112 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France61–3–41Scotland105 meetings, 1910 to 2026 · France by 2.4 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · France by 3.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Scotland 50–40 France | Six Nations Championship | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2025-03-15 | France 35–16 Scotland | — | Stade de France |
| 2024-02-10 | Scotland 16–20 France | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2023-08-12 | France 30–27 Scotland | — | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 2023-08-05 | Scotland 25–21 France | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 105. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.