France vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
France 42.6%draw 2.4%55.0% South AfricaSouth Africa 70.0%draw 2.4%27.6% FranceFrance 35.0%draw 2.4%62.6% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 South Africa and 17 France, with the middle run at 1 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why France are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours France, negative favours South Africa.
France 1842, South Africa 2036 — 194 points, favouring South Africa
France are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France12–6–29South Africa47 meetings, 1913 to 2025 · South Africa by 6.1 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · South Africa by 11.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | France 17–32 South Africa | — | Stade de France |
| 2023-10-15 | France 28–29 South Africa | — | Stade de France |
| 2022-11-12 | France 30–26 South Africa | — | Orange Velodrome |
| 2018-11-10 | France 26–29 South Africa | — | Stade de France |
| 2017-11-18 | France 17–18 South Africa | — | Stade de France |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 47. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.