France vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
France 36.0%draw 2.3%61.7% South AfricaSouth Africa 82.6%draw 2.3%15.1% FranceFrance 25.3%draw 2.3%72.4% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for France v South Africa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 South Africa and 16 France, half of them between 12 South Africa and 5 France, with the middle run at 3 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why France are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of France winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps France, a bar to the left helps South Africa.
France 2301, South Africa 2512 — 211 points, favouring South Africa
France are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France12–6–29South Africa47 meetings, 1913 to 2025 · South Africa by 6.1 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · South Africa by 11.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | France 17–32 South Africa | — | Stade de France |
| 2023-10-15 | France 28–29 South Africa | — | Stade de France |
| 2022-11-12 | France 30–26 South Africa | — | Orange Velodrome |
| 2018-11-10 | France 26–29 South Africa | — | Stade de France |
| 2017-11-18 | France 17–18 South Africa | — | Stade de France |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 47. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.