France vs Spain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
France 97.3%1.7% SpainSpain 4.5%94.5% FranceFrance 96.0%3.0% SpainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for France v Spain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 France and 52 France, half of them between 9 France and 38 France, with the middle run at 21 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 85 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 34-13 on a tight afternoon and 46-25 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of France winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps France, a bar to the left helps Spain.
France 2301, Spain 1566 — 736 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France24–0–0Spain24 meetings, 1927 to 1996 · France by 38.3 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · France by 41.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996-03-31 | Spain 9–81 France | — | Sant Boi de Llobregat |
| 1994-03-20 | France 49–3 Spain | — | — |
| 1993-06-23 | France 55–5 Spain | — | Stade d'Honneur du Parc des sports et de l'Amitie |
| 1992-03-22 | France 53–4 Spain | — | — |
| 1991-04-28 | Spain 6–24 France | — | Ciudad Universitaria |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.