France vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
France 94.3%4.7% TongaTonga 10.9%88.1% FranceFrance 89.7%9.3% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 France and 52 France, with the middle run at 21 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 44-23 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours France, negative favours Tonga.
France 1842, Tonga 938 — 904 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France2–0–1Tonga3 meetings, 1995 to 2019 · France by 8.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-06 | France 23–21 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Egao Health (Umakana Yokana) Stadium |
| 2011-10-01 | France 14–19 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Hnry Stadium(neutral) |
| 1995-05-26 | France 38–10 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Loftus Versfeld(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.