France vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
France 96.5%2.5% TongaTonga 7.0%92.0% FranceFrance 94.3%4.7% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for France v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 France and 55 France, half of them between 8 France and 39 France, with the middle run at 21 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 38 and 87 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 35-14 on a tight afternoon and 48-27 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of France winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps France, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
France 2301, Tonga 1454 — 847 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France4–0–2Tonga6 meetings, 1995 to 2019 · France by 12.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-06 | France 23–21 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Egao Health (Umakana Yokana) Stadium |
| 2013-11-16 | France 38–18 Tonga | — | Stade Oceane |
| 2011-10-01 | France 14–19 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Hnry Stadium(neutral) |
| 2005-11-19 | France 43–8 Tonga | — | Stadium |
| 1999-06-16 | Tonga 20–16 France | — | — |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.