France vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
France 97.2%1.8% UruguayUruguay 5.3%93.7% FranceFrance 95.5%3.5% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for France v Uruguay, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 France and 53 France, half of them between 8 France and 37 France, with the middle run at 21 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 86 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 34-13 on a tight afternoon and 47-26 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of France winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps France, a bar to the left helps Uruguay.
France 2301, Uruguay 1520 — 782 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France4–0–0Uruguay4 meetings, 1960 to 2024 · France by 29.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-10 | Uruguay 28–43 France | — | Estadio Charrua |
| 2023-09-14 | France 27–12 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | Stade Pierre Mauroy |
| 1985-06-30 | Uruguay 6–34 France | — | Estadio Charrúa |
| 1960-08-20 | Uruguay 0–61 France | — | Carrasco Polo Club |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.