Georgia vs Japan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Georgia 53.9%draw 2.8%43.3% JapanJapan 62.1%draw 2.8%35.1% GeorgiaGeorgia 45.0%draw 2.8%52.2% JapanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Japan and 23 Georgia, with the middle run at 1 Georgia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Georgia are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Georgia, negative favours Japan.
Georgia 1215, Japan 1310 — 95 points, favouring Japan
Georgia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia2–0–3Japan5 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Japan by 6.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Georgia 23–25 Japan | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2024-07-13 | Japan 23–25 Georgia | — | Yurtec Stadium |
| 2018-06-23 | Japan 28–0 Georgia | — | City of Toyota Stadium |
| 2016-11-12 | Georgia 22–28 Japan | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2015-09-05 | Japan 10–13 Georgia | — | Kingsholm |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.