Georgia vs Japan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Georgia 56.8%draw 3.0%40.2% JapanJapan 62.7%draw 3.0%34.3% GeorgiaGeorgia 45.9%draw 2.9%51.2% JapanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Georgia v Japan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Japan and 18 Georgia, half of them between 5 Japan and 9 Georgia, with the middle run at 1 Georgia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 29-28 on an open one.
Why Georgia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Georgia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Georgia, a bar to the left helps Japan.
Georgia 1899, Japan 1846 — 53 points, favouring Georgia
Georgia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia2–0–6Japan8 meetings, 2006 to 2025 · Japan by 6.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Georgia 23–25 Japan | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2024-07-13 | Japan 23–25 Georgia | — | Yurtec Stadium |
| 2018-06-23 | Japan 28–0 Georgia | — | City of Toyota Stadium |
| 2016-11-12 | Georgia 22–28 Japan | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2015-09-05 | Japan 13–10 Georgia | — | Kingsholm |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.