Georgia vs Namibia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Georgia 81.4%draw 1.9%16.7% NamibiaNamibia 23.6%draw 1.8%74.6% GeorgiaGeorgia 79.6%draw 1.8%18.6% NamibiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Namibia and 44 Georgia, with the middle run at 13 Georgia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 39-26 on an open one.
Why Georgia are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Georgia, negative favours Namibia.
Georgia 1215, Namibia 930 — 285 points, favouring Georgia
Georgia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia2–0–0Namibia2 meetings, 2007 to 2015 · Georgia by 15.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-10-07 | Georgia 17–16 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Sandy Park(neutral) |
| 2007-09-26 | Georgia 30–0 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Stade Bollaert-Delelis(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.