Georgia vs Portugal
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Georgia 85.8%draw 2.0%12.2% PortugalPortugal 30.1%draw 2.0%67.9% GeorgiaGeorgia 77.1%draw 2.0%20.9% PortugalEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Georgia v Portugal, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Portugal and 39 Georgia, half of them between 3 Georgia and 25 Georgia, with the middle run at 11 Georgia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Georgia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Georgia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Georgia, a bar to the left helps Portugal.
Georgia 1899, Portugal 1638 — 261 points, favouring Georgia
Georgia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia19–4–5Portugal28 meetings, 1997 to 2026 · Georgia by 10.3 on average
Last 10: 7–2–1 · Georgia by 11.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Georgia 17–19 Portugal | — | Estadio Ontime Butarque(neutral) |
| 2024-03-17 | Georgia 36–10 Portugal | — | Stade Jean Bouin(neutral) |
| 2023-09-23 | Georgia 18–18 Portugal | Rugby World Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2023-03-19 | Georgia 38–11 Portugal | — | Estadio Nuevo Vivero(neutral) |
| 2022-07-16 | Georgia 23–14 Portugal | — | AIA Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 28. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.