Georgia vs Portugal
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Georgia 64.2%draw 2.8%33.0% PortugalPortugal 38.6%draw 2.8%58.6% GeorgiaGeorgia 62.9%draw 2.8%34.3% PortugalEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Portugal and 36 Georgia, with the middle run at 6 Georgia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-28 on an open one.
Why Georgia are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Georgia, negative favours Portugal.
Georgia 1215, Portugal 1121 — 94 points, favouring Georgia
Georgia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia1–1–0Portugal2 meetings, 2022 to 2023 · Georgia by 4.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-23 | Georgia 18–18 Portugal | Rugby World Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2022-07-16 | Georgia 23–14 Portugal | — | AIA Arena |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.