Georgia vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Georgia 86.0%13.0% RomaniaRomania 17.8%81.2% GeorgiaGeorgia 83.7%15.3% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Romania and 49 Georgia, with the middle run at 18 Georgia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-12 on a tight afternoon and 41-23 on an open one.
Why Georgia are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Georgia, negative favours Romania.
Georgia 1215, Romania 788 — 427 points, favouring Georgia
Georgia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia2–0–0Romania2 meetings, 2011 to 2023 · Georgia by 33.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-12 | Georgia 56–6 Romania | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2011-09-28 | Romania 9–25 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Central Energy Trust Arena(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.