Georgia vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Georgia 93.3%5.7% RomaniaRomania 15.5%83.5% GeorgiaGeorgia 88.6%10.4% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Georgia v Romania, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Georgia and 49 Georgia, half of them between 7 Georgia and 34 Georgia, with the middle run at 17 Georgia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 84 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-15 on a tight afternoon and 44-27 on an open one.
Why Georgia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Georgia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Georgia, a bar to the left helps Romania.
Georgia 1899, Romania 1265 — 634 points, favouring Georgia
Georgia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia21–1–9Romania31 meetings, 1998 to 2026 · Georgia by 8.7 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Georgia by 23.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Georgia 53–30 Romania | — | Avchala Stadium |
| 2025-03-02 | Georgia 43–5 Romania | — | Avchala Stadium |
| 2024-03-02 | Georgia 43–5 Romania | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2023-08-12 | Georgia 56–6 Romania | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2023-03-05 | Georgia 31–7 Romania | — | Avchala Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 31. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.