Georgia vs Russia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Georgia 96.2%2.8% RussiaRussia 9.6%89.4% GeorgiaGeorgia 92.9%6.1% RussiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Georgia v Russia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Georgia and 53 Georgia, half of them between 8 Georgia and 37 Georgia, with the middle run at 20 Georgia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 86 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-13 on a tight afternoon and 46-26 on an open one.
Why Georgia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Georgia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Georgia, a bar to the left helps Russia.
Georgia 1899, Russia 1137 — 762 points, favouring Georgia
Georgia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia23–1–1Russia25 meetings, 1993 to 2021 · Georgia by 13.8 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Georgia by 21.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-03-20 | Russia 6–23 Georgia | — | Kaliningrad Stadium |
| 2021-02-07 | Georgia 16–7 Russia | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2019-03-17 | Russia 6–22 Georgia | — | Kuban Stadium |
| 2018-03-10 | Russia 9–29 Georgia | — | Krasnodar Stadium |
| 2017-03-12 | Georgia 28–14 Russia | — | Dinamo Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.