Georgia vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Georgia 24.2%draw 1.8%74.0% ScotlandScotland 91.1%draw 1.8%7.1% GeorgiaGeorgia 14.5%draw 1.8%83.7% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 38 Scotland and 11 Georgia, half of them between 23 Scotland and level, with the middle run at 9 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Georgia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Georgia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Georgia, a bar to the left helps Scotland.
Georgia 1899, Scotland 2193 — 294 points, favouring Scotland
Georgia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia0–0–6Scotland6 meetings, 2011 to 2023 · Scotland by 27.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-26 | Scotland 33–6 Georgia | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2020-10-23 | Scotland 48–7 Georgia | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2019-09-06 | Scotland 36–9 Georgia | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2019-08-31 | Georgia 10–44 Scotland | — | Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena |
| 2016-11-26 | Scotland 43–16 Georgia | — | Rugby Park, Kilmarnock |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.