Georgia vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Georgia 7.1%91.9% South AfricaSouth Africa 95.8%3.2% GeorgiaGeorgia 4.9%94.1% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Georgia v South Africa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 49 South Africa and 1 South Africa, half of them between 35 South Africa and 6 South Africa, with the middle run at 17 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 83 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 31-14 on a tight afternoon and 44-27 on an open one.
Why Georgia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Georgia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Georgia, a bar to the left helps South Africa.
Georgia 1899, South Africa 2512 — 613 points, favouring South Africa
Georgia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia0–0–3South Africa3 meetings, 2003 to 2025 · South Africa by 34.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | South Africa 55–10 Georgia | — | Mbombela Stadium |
| 2021-07-02 | South Africa 40–9 Georgia | — | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2003-10-24 | South Africa 46–19 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Allianz Stadium(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.