Georgia vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Georgia 4.7%94.3% South AfricaSouth Africa 91.8%7.2% GeorgiaGeorgia 5.9%93.1% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 51 South Africa and 2 South Africa, with the middle run at 21 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 31-10 on a tight afternoon and 43-22 on an open one.
Why Georgia are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Georgia, negative favours South Africa.
Georgia 1215, South Africa 2036 — 821 points, favouring South Africa
Georgia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia0–0–3South Africa3 meetings, 2003 to 2025 · South Africa by 34.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | South Africa 55–10 Georgia | — | Mbombela Stadium |
| 2021-07-02 | South Africa 40–9 Georgia | — | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2003-10-24 | South Africa 46–19 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Allianz Stadium(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.