Georgia vs Spain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Georgia 91.9%draw 1.5%6.6% SpainSpain 21.7%draw 1.5%76.8% GeorgiaGeorgia 85.7%draw 1.5%12.8% SpainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Georgia v Spain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Georgia and 46 Georgia, half of them between 6 Georgia and 32 Georgia, with the middle run at 17 Georgia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-12 on a tight afternoon and 40-23 on an open one.
Why Georgia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Georgia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Georgia, a bar to the left helps Spain.
Georgia 1899, Spain 1566 — 333 points, favouring Georgia
Georgia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia24–1–3Spain28 meetings, 2000 to 2026 · Georgia by 18.2 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Georgia by 21.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Georgia 42–30 Spain | — | Avchala Stadium |
| 2025-03-16 | Georgia 46–28 Spain | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2025-02-16 | Spain 32–62 Georgia | — | Estadio Central |
| 2024-02-17 | Georgia 38–3 Spain | — | Avchala Stadium |
| 2023-02-18 | Spain 3–41 Georgia | — | Estadio El Malecon |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 28. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.