Georgia vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Georgia 91.1%7.9% TongaTonga 21.1%77.9% GeorgiaGeorgia 84.7%14.3% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Georgia v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Georgia and 43 Georgia, half of them between 5 Georgia and 28 Georgia, with the middle run at 14 Georgia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-14 on a tight afternoon and 41-27 on an open one.
Why Georgia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Georgia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Georgia, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
Georgia 1899, Tonga 1454 — 445 points, favouring Georgia
Georgia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia6–0–2Tonga8 meetings, 1999 to 2024 · Tonga by 0.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-24 | Georgia 22–7 Tonga | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2018-11-24 | Georgia 20–9 Tonga | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2018-06-09 | Tonga 15–16 Georgia | — | ANZ Stadium(neutral) |
| 2016-06-18 | Georgia 23–20 Tonga | — | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2015-09-19 | Tonga 10–17 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Kingsholm(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.