Georgia vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Georgia 82.0%draw 1.9%16.1% TongaTonga 22.1%draw 1.9%76.0% GeorgiaGeorgia 81.5%draw 1.9%16.6% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Tonga and 38 Georgia, with the middle run at 11 Georgia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Georgia are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Georgia, negative favours Tonga.
Georgia 1215, Tonga 938 — 277 points, favouring Georgia
Georgia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia4–0–0Tonga4 meetings, 2015 to 2024 · Georgia by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-24 | Georgia 22–7 Tonga | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2018-11-24 | Georgia 20–9 Tonga | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2016-06-18 | Georgia 23–20 Tonga | — | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2015-09-19 | Tonga 10–17 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Kingsholm(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.